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Hawkish speeches from BoJ officials coupled with a softer US core CPI print for December put an interim ceiling on US dollar strength against the yen.
The leading 10-year yield spread of the US Treasury note against the JGB has staged a bearish breakdown condition.
Medium-term uptrend of USD/JPY from 16 September 2024 low is at risk of shaping a potential multi-week corrective decline sequence.
Watch the key medium-term resistance of 158.35/80 on the USD/JPY.
Since the start of the new year, the persistent US dollar strength against the Japanese yen seen in the last quarter (Q4) of 2024 has started to ease.Fig 1: Year-to-date performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 16 Jan 2025 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)Based on the year-to-date rolling performance as of Thursday, 16 January, the performance of the US dollar is the weakest against the yen versus other major developed nations’ currencies as the USD/JPY shed -0.77% (see Fig 1).This week, speeches from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda and his deputy Himino have mentioned encouraging remarks on a stronger positive outlook towards Japanese corporations raising employees’ salaries compared to December.These positive remarks on wage growth in Japan have signalled a rate hike chance at the BoJ’s next policy meeting to be concluded on Friday, 24 January which in turn softened the USD/JPY’s prior bullish momentum coupled with a softer core US CPI print for December that eased to 3.2% y/y from November print of 3.3% and came in slightly below expectations of 3.3%.Longer-term US Treasury yield premium shrinkage over JGBFig 2: 10-year yield spread of US Treasury/JGB with USD/JPY as of 16 Jan 2025 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)The yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury note and the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has a direct correlation movement with the USD/JPY (see Fig 2).Based on past observations, the movement of the 10-year yield spread of the US Treasury against JGB has a lead time over the USD/JPY where the yield spread inched downwards on 5 November 2024 and broke below its 20-day moving average thereafter on 20 November 2024.This prior bearish movement of the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury note over the JGB took precedence ahead of the USD/JPY medium-term decline of 7% from 14 November 2024 to 2 December 2024.Right now, a similar bearish movement of the 10-year yield spread of the US Treasury against JGB has been detected from 13 January 2025 to 14 January 2025 where the US Treasury yield premium declined from 3.6% to 3.7% and broke below the 20-day moving average at this time of the writing.Hence, if the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury note over the JGB continues to inch lower, the USD/JPY may see further downside pressure.Bearish momentum detected Fig 3: USD/JPY medium-term & major trend phases as of 16 Jan 2025 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)The daily RSI momentum indicator of the USD/JPY has flashed on a recent bearish divergence condition at its overbought region since 8 January 2025 and just broke below the 50 level at this time of writing.These observations suggest that the medium-term uptrend from the 16 September 2024 low of 139.58 is in jeopardy of shaping a potential multi-week corrective decline sequence.Watch 158.35/80 key medium-term pivotal resistance and a break below 152.90 (also the 200-day moving average) may trigger the corrective decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 149.30 and 144.80 (see Fig 3).On the other hand, a clearance above 158.80 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the 160.30/161.70 major resistance.Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
BioLatest PostsBased in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities. Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.
ドル円為替の最新動向と分析
最近の日本銀行（BoJ）の幹部によるハト派的な発言と、12月のアメリカのコアCPI（消費者物価指数の食品とエネルギーを除いたもの）の予想を下回る結果は、ドル円相場における米ドルの強さに一時的な天井をもたらしました。これにより、投資家の皆さんは、為替市場の新たな動きを注視する必要があります。
日銀の発言と米国のCPIデータが為替に与える影響
年初から、2024年第4四半期に見られた米ドルの強さが和らぎ始めています。特に、日本銀行総裁の上田氏と副総裁の日見野氏が、日本の企業による従業員の給与引き上げに対する前向きな見方を述べたことが、日銀の次回の政策決定会合での利上げの可能性を示唆し、米ドル/円の上昇勢いを和らげる要因となりました。
米国債と日本国債の利回り差が示す為替市場の兆候
米国債と日本国債（JGB）の10年物の利回り差は、ドル円相場と直接的な相関関係があります。過去の観察によると、この利回り差の動きは、ドル円相場に先行する傾向があり、利回り差が下がるとドル円相場に下降圧力がかかる可能性があります。
USD/JPYの中期上昇トレンドと潜在的な修正局面
2024年9月16日の安値からのUSD/JPYの中期上昇トレンドは、潜在的な数週間にわたる修正局面を形成するリスクに直面しています。投資家の皆さんは、USD/JPYにおける158.35/80の重要な中期抵抗水準に注目し、その水準を超えるかどうかで市場の方向性が変わる可能性があります。
為替取引戦略のポイント
USD/JPYの重要な中期抵抗水準とは？
USD/JPYの中期抵抗水準158.35/80は、今後の市場動向を左右する重要なポイントです。この水準を上回ると、弱気のシナリオが無効になり、160.30/161.70の主要抵抗水準への再テストが見込まれます。
日本の賃金成長の見通しと日銀の政策決定への影響
日本の賃金成長に対する前向きな見方は、日銀の政策決定における金利上昇の可能性を示唆しています。これは、為替市場における米ドル/円の動きに影響を与える可能性があります。
投資家が知るべきテクニカル分析
米国債と日本国債の利回り差の動向分析
米国債とJGBの10年物の利回り差は、現在下降傾向にあり、これが継続するとUSD/JPYにさらなる下降圧力がかかることが予想されます。
USD/JPYのRSIモメンタム指標から読み解く市場のサイン
USD/JPYの日次RSI（相対力指数）モメンタム指標は、最近過買域での弱気の発散状態を示しており、この指標が50レベルを下回ったことは、中期上昇トレンドの継続に疑問符を投げかけています。
USD/JPYのサポートとレジスタンスレベルの特定
USD/JPYの次の中期サポートレベルは149.30と144.80です。これらの水準を下回ると、修正局面が進む可能性があります。一方で、152.90（200日移動平均線）を下回ると、修正局面が始まるトリガーとなる可能性があります。
