ドル円取引の最新動向と戦略: レジスタンスレベルと38年ぶりの安値が示す今後の見通し

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July 1, 2024Share
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The Japanese yen has dropped below the 161 line on Monday. The yen is trading at 161.39 early in the North American session, down 0.35% on the day.Japan’s GDP revised sharply lowerJapan revised its first-quarter GDP report to -2.9%, y/y, sharply lower than the initial reading of -1.8%. On a quarterly basis, GDP was revised lower to -4.0%, compared to -3.7% in the fourth quarter. The downward revision was due to corrections in construction orders. The rare unscheduled revision will dampen hopes for a rate hike at the BoJ’s July meeting and points to a bumpy economic recovery.At the same time, Japan’s Tankan quarterly survey indicated that business confidence had improved and corporate inflation expectations edged higher. These factors support a rate hike in the near term, which leaves BoJ policy makers in a bit of a quandary regarding rate policy due to the conflicting data.What may tip the scale in favor of rate hike, perhaps as soon as July, is the significant slide of the Japanese yen. The yen is trading closes to 38-year lows against the US dollar and has plunged a staggering 14% this year. The BoJ intervened twice in the currency market in late April and early May and purchased some billion worth of yen, but that proved to be only a stopgap measure as the yen has surrendered all of the gains which followed the interventions.In the US, the economy has performed well but the manufacturing sector has posted only one month of expansion since November 2022. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected to improve to 49.1 in June, compared to 48.7 a month earlier. The 50 level separates contraction from expansion..USD/JPY TechnicalUSD/JPY pushed above resistance at 160.82 earlier and is testing resistance at 161.37. The next line of resistance is 162.38
There is support at 160.36 and 159.81
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BioGoogle+Latest PostsA highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.

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Contents

1 ドル円為替取引の最新動向
2 テクニカル分析と今後の見通し
- 2.1 USD/JPYのレジスタンスとサポートレベル
- 2.2 日本円の38年ぶりの安値と市場介入の効果
3 FX取引における戦略的アプローチ

ドル円為替取引の最新動向

月曜日には、日本円が161円のラインを下回りました。北米セッション序盤での円の取引は161.39円で、この日に0.35%の下落を記録しています。日本のGDPは初回発表よりも大幅に下方修正され、年率換算で-2.9%となりました。これは初の読み値の-1.8%から大きく下回るものです。四半期ベースでは、GDPは前四半期の-3.7%から-4.0%へと下方修正されました。この下方修正は建設受注の訂正によるものです。この予定外の修正は、7月の日銀会合での利上げへの期待を減退させ、経済回復が困難な道のりであることを示しています。

日本円の価値下落とその背景

一方で、日本のTankan四半期調査では、企業の信頼感が改善され、企業のインフレ期待がわずかに高まっていることが示されました。これらの要因は短期的な利上げを支持していますが、矛盾するデータにより、日銀の政策立案者は利率政策についてのジレンマに直面しています。日本円の顕著な下落が、もしかすると7月に利上げを行うための決め手となるかもしれません。円は対米ドルで38年ぶりの安値に近づき、今年に入ってから14%もの急落を記録しています。日銀は4月末と5月初めに為替市場に2度介入し、何十億円もの円を購入しましたが、これは一時的な対策に過ぎず、介入後に見られた円の上昇はすべて失われました。