今日は、次のサイトを解説します。（AI生成）
The recent movement of the USD/JPY has been influenced primarily by political factors.
The JPY has weakened significantly due to the growing risk that the current LDP-led coalition may lose its majority seats after this Sunday, 27 October snap election.
Watch the 151.10 key short-term support on the USD/JPY.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report “USD/JPY Technical: Potential bearish reversal in US dollar strength below 200-day moving average” published on 21 October 2024. Click here for a recap.Since our last publication, the bears have continued to gain a foothold in the Japanese yen as it weakened further against the US dollar and burst above the 151.95 key long-term pivotal resistance of the USD/JPY and its 200-day moving average.Growing internal political risk is inflicting damage on the JPY outlook in the near termThere is now a growing risk that Japan may end up with a minority coalition government after this Sunday, 27 October snap general election for the lower house.Recent polls have indicated the possibility of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition losing its majority in parliament and may also cause the newly appointed Prime Minister Ishiba to lose his premiership or force the LDP to look for additional coalition partner to stay in power.All in all, such political risk is likely to hamper the Bank of Japan (BoJ) current monetary policy normalisation plan to hike interest rates gradually after it ended its decades-long of negative interest rate in March and increased the overnight short-term interest rate to 0.25% in July.At this juncture, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has ruled out the prospect of forming a coalition with the LDP.Thus, smaller opposition parties, Japan Innovation Party and Democratic Party for the People are the only choices that LDP has as potential coalition partners to secure its power base.Both opposition parties favour expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to achieve sustained economic and wage growth. Hence, BoJ is likely to face a hurdle in enacting additional interest rate hikes next year if such economic proposals are taken into consideration by a newly formed LDP-led coalition.Fundamentals are still supporting further interest rate hikes in JapanFig 1: Monthly Japan PPI, CPI & Tokyo CPI trends (y/y) as of Sep & Oct 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)Even though the latest headline inflation in Tokyo slowed to 1.8% y/y in October, down from 2.2% a month earlier, the Tokyo core-core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) came in strong-than-expected as it rose to 1.8% y/y from 1.2% printed in September (see Fig 1).The Tokyo inflation data are considered a leading inflationary trend for the nationwide Japan CPI which BoJ will take into consideration at next week’s monetary policy meeting on 31 October when it also releases its latest quarterly growth and inflation trend forecasts.The market consensus is looking for BoJ to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25% due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US presidential election on 5 November.Watch the 151.10 key short-term support on USD/JPYFig 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 25 Oct 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)The pull-back of the USD/JPY that took form on Thursday, 24 October from a three-month high of 153.19 printed on Wednesday, 23 October has managed to stall at its 200-day moving average and slightly above the lower boundary of its minor ascending channel from 30 September 2024 low of 141.65 (see Fig 2).Watch the 151.10 key short-term pivotal support to maintain its current streak of impulsive upmove sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 153.80 and 154.70/80 next.However, failure to hold at 151.10 invalidates the bullish tone to kickstart a potential mean reversion decline to expose the intermediate supports of 150.30 and 148.95 (also the 20-day moving average).Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
ドル円為替の最新動向：政治的要因が影響
最近のドル円為替レートは、政治的な要因によって大きく動いています。特に、自由民主党（LDP）と公明党の連立が、10月27日の衆議院選挙後に多数を失う可能性が高まっていることが、円の大幅な弱体化につながっています。短期的なサポートラインとして、151.10円に注目が集まっています。
日本政治の変動と円の弱体化
日本の政治状況が不透明になる中、円は対ドルでさらに弱まり、USD/JPYは151.95円の重要な長期的な抵抗線と200日移動平均線を上回りました。国内政治リスクの高まりが、短期的に円の見通しに悪影響を及ぼしています。
USD/JPYの重要なサポートライン151.10を注視
USD/JPYは、151.10円の重要な短期的なサポートラインを維持することで、上昇トレンドを続ける可能性があります。しかし、このサポートラインを維持できない場合、弱気のトーンが強まり、さらなる下落が予想されます。
前回の分析「USD/JPYテクニカル：200日移動平均線を下回る米ドルの潜在的な弱気反転」のフォローアップ
前回の分析では、200日移動平均線を下回るとUSD/JPYに弱気反転の可能性があると指摘しました。今回のフォローアップでは、その後の市場の動きを検証し、現在のトレンドとサポートラインの重要性について考察しています。
日本の政治リスクと市場への影響
自民党・公明党連立政権の多数喪失リスク
自民党と公明党の連立政権が、衆議院選挙後に多数を失うリスクが増大しています。これは、日本銀行（BoJ）の金融政策の正常化計画、特に利上げ計画に影響を与える可能性があります。
日銀の金融政策正常化計画への影響
日銀は、長年にわたるマイナス金利政策を終了し、2024年7月には短期金利を0.25%に引き上げました。しかし、政治的な不確実性が高まる中で、さらなる利上げが困難になる可能性があります。
野党の立憲民主党と自民党の連立の可能性
主要野党である立憲民主党は、自民党との連立を否定しています。これにより、日本維新の会や国民民主党などの小規模な野党が、自民党の連立パートナーとしての選択肢となっています。
日本の金融政策と今後の利上げの見通し
日本の物価指数とインフレの動向
東京の最新のインフレデータは、コアコアインフレ率（食品とエネルギーを除く）が予想以上に強く、1.8%に上昇しました。これらのデータは、日本全国のCPI（消費者物価指数）の先行指標とされ、日銀が次回の金融政策会合で考慮することになります。
日銀の次回金融政策会合と市場の予測
市場のコンセンサスは、日銀が11月5日の米大統領選挙に関する不確実性を考慮して、短期金利を現行の0.25%に据え置くと見ています。
USD/JPYのテクニカル分析とサポートラインの重要性
USD/JPYは、200日移動平均線とそのマイナーな上昇チャネルの下限近くで下落が止まりました。今後の重要なサポートラインとして151.10円が注目されており、このレベルを維持することが、さらなる上昇の鍵となります。
