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Recent lacklustre key US economic growth-related data; ISM Manufacturing PMI & ADP Employment Change reinforced the recent bout of JPY strength.
Bearish elements in the JPY crosses Index suggest further potential JPY strength in the medium-term horizon.
Watch the 140.25 support on the USD/JPY.
A déjà vu experience is now ripping across the foreign exchange market where it saw a swift bout strengthening in the Japanese yen during a recent period from 31 July to 5 August, primarily triggered by the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike.Since Tuesday, 3 September, the Japanese yen bulls have reared their horns again as the JPY rallied by 3.5% against the US dollar at this time of the writing.JPY has strengthened across the boardFig 1: 1-month rolling performances of G-10 JPY crosses as of 6 Sep 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)Based on a one-month rolling performance basis, the G-10 JPY cross pairs (JPY is being quoted as the variable currency) have started to inch downward since Monday, 2 September where the worst performers are; USD/JPY (-1.13%), CHF/JPY (+0.12%), and EUR/JPY (+0.39%).The recent strength seen in the Japanese yen in the past week is not attributed to the Bank of Japan but triggered by an increasing risk that the US economy may have already slipped into a recession and the US Federal Reserve being late on enacting an interest cut cycle may be forced to introduce bigger cuts on its Fed funds rate down the road.The 2-year US Treasury yield has a higher sensitivity toward the US Fed’s monetary policy stance, slipped by 39 basis points from 4.10% printed on 16 August to 3.71% at this time of the writing while the 2-year JGB yield inched higher from 0.32% to 0.37% over the same period (see Fig 1).Overall, the US Treasury yield premium against JGB has narrowed, reinforced by weak private sector hiring data in the US; the ADP employment change for August added the lowest number of jobs in August at 99K, over a downwardly revised 111K in July, and well below forecasts of 145K.Today’s release of the government-compiled non-farm payroll data for August will shed more light on the state of the US labour market (Fed Chair Powell has highlighted labour market condition is now a primary focus of the Fed in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech); especially the unemployment rate that rose to 4.3% in July, the highest level since October 2021.JPY crosses index has flashed out major bearish conditions Fig 2: JPY crosses Index long-term secular trend as of 6 Sep 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)The JPY crosses Index, created by using an equal-weighted basket of G-10 JPY crosses is showing signs of technical weakness (see Fig 2).Its monthly chart has depicted a recent major failure bullish breakout scenario from Feb to July as the JPY crosses Index reintegrated below 111.80, a major swing high formed in July 2007, a few months before the global financial crisis was unleashed.Its monthly RSI momentum indicator triggered a bearish condition in July where it broke below a key ascending trendline support. Interestingly, a similar RSI bearish condition occurred in the past on August 2007 before the JPY crosses Index staged a significant decline of 36% in the next seven months.If the 111.80 key long-term pivotal resistance of the JPY crosses Index is not surpassed to the upside, it faces the risk of a further decline toward the 103.90 major support in the first step; another bout of potential JPY strength looming on the horizon.USD/JPY is eyeing the 140.25 support nextFig 3: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 6 Sep 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)The recent major uptrend phase of the USD/JPY from 16 January 2023 has been damaged and technical analysis is suggesting that it is now evolving into a potential medium-term corrective decline sequence (see Fig 3).The daily RSI momentum indicator is still exhibiting bearish elements which suggests that the ongoing multi-month corrective decline phase in place since 3 July 2024 may have not reached an exhaustion stage yet.A break below 140.25 support exposes the next medium-term supports at 137.35 and 133.75.Only a clearance above the 149.30/150.80 key medium-term pivotal resistance invalidates the bearish scenario for the next medium-term resistance to come in at 158.35 in the first step.Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
BioLatest PostsBased in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities. Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.
ドル円為替の最新動向と分析
最近の米国経済成長関連データ、特にISM製造業購買担当者指数とADP雇用変化の振るわない結果が、日本円の最近の強さを後押ししています。JPYクロス指数の弱気要素が中期的にさらなる円高の可能性を示唆しており、USD/JPYでは140.25のサポートラインに注目が集まっています。
米国経済データの影響と円の強さ
米国経済が既にリセッションに陥っている可能性と、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）が利下げサイクルを遅れて開始したことで、今後より大幅な利下げを余儀なくされるリスクが高まっています。これが、日本円の強さを引き起こす一因となっています。
中期的な円高の可能性を示唆するJPYクロス指数
JPYクロス指数は、G-10通貨ペアの円を変動通貨として用いた等加重バスケットで構成されており、その指数がテクニカル的な弱さを示しています。特に、長期的な抵抗ラインである111.80を超えることができなければ、さらなる下落リスクがあるとされています。
USD/JPYにおける140.25のサポートラインを注視
USD/JPYは2023年1月16日からの主要な上昇トレンドが損なわれ、中期的な修正の下降トレンドに移行している可能性があります。140.25のサポートラインを割り込むと、次の中期サポートラインである137.35や133.75が視野に入ってきます。
日本円の急激な強さの背景
日銀の利上げが引き起こした円高の波
日本銀行の利上げが主な引き金となり、日本円は対米ドルで3.5%の上昇を見せました。これは、円が広範囲にわたって強まっていることを示しています。
米国経済のリセッションリスクと円の反応
米国経済がリセッションに入るリスクが高まり、それに伴い日本円が反応しています。米国の2年債利回りはFRBの金融政策スタンスに対する感度が高く、3.71%まで低下しています。
米国の労働市場データと今後の見通し
米国の労働市場に関するデータが今後の見通しに影響を与えるでしょう。特に、非農業部門雇用者数の変化は労働市場の状態に関する重要な指標です。
テクニカル分析から見る円の今後
JPYクロス指数の長期的な弱さの兆候
JPYクロス指数の月間チャートは、過去の弱気の条件と類似したRSIモメンタム指標の下降を示しており、これは円のさらなる強さを予兆しているかもしれません。
USD/JPYのサポートラインと今後の展望
USD/JPYは中期的な修正の下降トレンドにある可能性が高く、140.25のサポートラインを下回ると、さらなるサポートラインがテストされることになります。
テクニカル指標が示す中期的な修正の可能性
日々のRSIモメンタム指標が依然として弱気の要素を示しており、USD/JPYは中期的な修正の下降トレンドがまだ終わっていない可能性があります。
