Today, I will explain the following site. (AI-generated)
ドル円の週間展望、米雇用統計でドル安進行、米CPI次第ではさらなるドル売りも
Contents
Understanding the USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
The past week’s key economic indicators, particularly the U.S. employment data, have contributed to a downward pressure on U.S. interest rates, leading to a weaker dollar and restraining the rise of USD/JPY. As we move forward, the focus shifts to whether the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will further propel the dollar’s descent. Traders should closely monitor this event as it could significantly influence the forex market and USD/JPY pair.
Impact of U.S. Employment Data on Dollar Weakness
Recent U.S. employment statistics have indicated a decrease in U.S. interest rates, which in turn has amplified the downward pressure on the dollar. This has had a noticeable effect on the USD/JPY exchange rate, limiting its potential to climb. Investors should be aware of how such macroeconomic factors can impact currency strength and trading strategies.
Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels for USD/JPY
Technical analysis reveals that the 162.00 level has acted as a resistance for USD/JPY, with the pair closing with bearish candles twice in the latter part of the previous week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both indicate a ‘death cross’ situation, suggesting a potential focus on identifying new lower levels for the pair. Key support levels to watch include the psychological threshold of 160.00 and the 21-day moving average, currently at 159.32.
Upcoming U.S. CPI Release and Potential Effects on Forex Market
The U.S. CPI data, due to be released this week, is a critical indicator to watch. Market expectations are currently set for a flat rate compared to the previous month. Should the core index and the ‘super core’ inflation rate, which excludes housing costs, show signs of inflation sticking, it could lead to an increase in U.S. interest rates. This, in turn, might prompt a short-covering in the U.S. dollar, affecting the forex market and potentially leading to a correction phase for USD/JPY.
Technical Indicators and Chart Patterns
Interpreting the Daily Chart: Resistance and Support Levels
On the daily chart, USD/JPY has shown resistance at the 162.00 level, with a recent break below the 10-day line. The RSI and MACD indicators both suggest a bearish crossover, which traders should consider when evaluating the trend. The 160.00 level is a critical psychological marker that, if maintained, could signal a strong market sentiment and a continuation of the trend towards 162 yen.
Hourly Chart Analysis: Fibonacci Retracement and Its Significance
The hourly chart features Fibonacci retracement levels that have been supporting the price action. A break below the 160.47 level, which corresponds to the 23.6% retracement, could indicate a potential test and break below 160.00. Traders should monitor these levels closely as they can provide significant insight into short-term market movements.
Macroeconomic Factors Influencing USD/JPY
The Correlation Between U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and USD/JPY
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) provides a general trend of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies. A complete break below the 50-day moving average on the DXY chart indicates a bearish trend for the U.S. dollar, which can influence the USD/JPY pair. Traders should keep an eye on the 100-day moving average as a potential indicator of continued dollar weakness.
How U.S. Treasury Yields Affect Forex Trading
U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, play a significant role in forex trading as they reflect investor sentiment towards the U.S. economy. A decline in yields suggests a decrease in investor confidence, which can lead to a weaker dollar and impact currency pairs like USD/JPY.
Anticipating the Impact of U.S. CPI Data on Currency Pairs
With the release of the U.S. CPI data, forex traders should be prepared for potential shifts in the market. If the data indicates a slowdown in inflation, it may lead to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby affecting U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the dollar against the yen. Traders should be vigilant and ready to adjust their positions accordingly.
