Today, I will explain the following website. (AI-generated)
1ヵ月以上続く“レンジ相場”の膠着状態…高市氏の沈黙で円相場の地合いは変わるのか？ 今週の米ドル／円予想レンジは〈146～149.5円〉【国際金融アナリストが解説】（THE GOLD ONLINE（ゴールドオンライン）） – Yahoo!ニュース
Contents
Understanding the USD/JPY Range Market
A range market in forex trading refers to a situation where a currency pair, such as the USD/JPY, trades within a relatively stable high and low price band over a certain period. This stagnation often indicates a balance between buying and selling pressures. Recently, the USD/JPY has experienced a prolonged range market, with movements suggesting a testing of both the upper and lower bounds of this range without a clear breakout.
What is a Range Market in Forex Trading?
In forex trading, a range market occurs when a currency pair moves within a confined price corridor, bounded by a support level, which prevents the price from moving lower, and a resistance level, which caps the price from moving higher. Traders often look for these patterns as they can offer opportunities for strategic entry and exit points.
Recent USD/JPY Movements and Market Reactions
The USD/JPY has seen a temporary drop to the 145 yen level followed by a swift rebound. This movement was within the ongoing range, suggesting a trial of range breakout which ultimately reverted back into the established trading band.
Factors Influencing the Current USD/JPY Stagnation
Several factors contribute to the current stagnation in the USD/JPY market, including the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, which led to speculation about continuous rate cuts receding, and the subsequent rise in US interest rates. Additionally, political shifts in Japan and the cautious stance of the Bank of Japan on interest rate hikes are also influencing the currency pair.
Key Economic Indicators and Their Impact
How the FOMC Decision Affects Forex Markets
The FOMC’s decision on interest rates is a significant driver of forex market movements. A rate cut generally leads to a depreciation of the USD, while a decision to hold or raise rates can strengthen the USD against other currencies. The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a modest rate cut, which was described as a ‘preventative’ measure, leaving the future of continuous rate cuts uncertain.
Interest Rate Differentials and Their Role in Currency Valuation
Interest rate differentials between countries can affect currency valuation, with higher interest rates usually leading to a stronger currency due to the higher returns on investments in that currency. The USD/JPY pair is particularly sensitive to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan.
Assessing the Future of US Interest Rates
Market participants are closely watching the future trajectory of US interest rates. The yield on US 2-year Treasury notes, although rebounding post-FOMC, remains significantly below the Federal Funds rate’s upper target, suggesting that the market is still pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts.
Strategies for Forex Traders in Range-bound Markets
Identifying Entry and Exit Points in a Range Market
In a range-bound market, traders can identify potential entry points at the support level and exit points at the resistance level. These levels are determined by historical price movements and can provide a framework for making trading decisions.
Role of Hedge Funds in Currency Fluctuations
Hedge funds and other speculative investors play a role in currency fluctuations. For example, a reduction in hedge fund short positions on the USD/JPY, as indicated by the CFTC statistics, can support the USD and lead to a rebound in the pair.
USD/JPY Forecast and Trading Tips for the Coming Week
Given the recent failed attempt to break below the range, the forecast for the coming week suggests a potential test of the upper range. Traders should monitor key economic indicators and geopolitical events that could influence the USD/JPY’s direction within the predicted range of 146 to 149.5 yen.
