Today, I will explain the following site. (AI-generated)
“歴史的円安”が異例の長期化…「1ドル＝160円」の再来はあり得るのか→為替のプロの回答（THE GOLD ONLINE（ゴールドオンライン）） – Yahoo!ニュース
Contents
Understanding the Prolonged “Historical Weak Yen” Scenario
The Japanese yen has been experiencing a prolonged period of devaluation, often referred to as “historical weak yen.” This trend has raised concerns among investors and policymakers alike. The yen’s depreciation can be attributed to various factors, including Japan’s monetary policy, economic indicators, and global market dynamics.
What Triggered the Recent Yen Depreciation?
Several triggers have contributed to the recent decline in the value of the yen. Notably, Japan’s intervention in the forex market to curb the yen’s fall and subsequent remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, suggesting that such interventions should be rare, have played a significant role. These events have led to a resurgence in the selling of the yen, pushing its value down further against the dollar.
Intervention in the Forex Market: Japan’s Strategy
In an attempt to stabilize the currency, the Japanese authorities have intervened in the forex market by selling U.S. dollars. This strategy temporarily reversed the yen’s decline, but the effect was short-lived as market sentiment shifted following Yellen’s comments.
Yellen’s Remarks and Their Impact on Yen Value
Secretary Yellen’s remarks on the rarity of forex interventions have had a significant impact on the yen’s value. Her comments led to a reduction in market caution regarding further interventions, thereby allowing the yen to depreciate once again as investors resumed selling the Japanese currency.
Key Factors Influencing USD/JPY Exchange Rates
Interest Rate Differentials Between the US and Japan
The interest rate differential between the United States and Japan is a key factor influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate. The U.S. dollar maintains a dominant position due to higher interest rates compared to Japan, making the dollar more attractive to investors and contributing to the yen’s weakness.
Speculative Yen Selling: Is it Going Too Far?
Speculative selling of the yen has been a driving force behind its devaluation. However, concerns have been raised about whether this activity has gone too far, with the potential for a correction that could see the yen regain some of its lost value.
Forecasting the Currency Movements for June
Market analysts predict that the USD/JPY exchange rate could fluctuate between 150 to 160 yen to the dollar in June. This forecast takes into account the current market trends and the ongoing speculative selling of the yen.
Implications for FX Traders and Future Predictions
Understanding CFTC Statistics and Their Role in FX Trading
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) statistics reflect the trading activities of hedge funds and other speculators. An analysis of these statistics can provide valuable insights for FX traders, particularly in understanding the scale and direction of speculative trading.
Japan’s Current Account Surplus and Its Paradoxical Effect on Yen
Despite Japan’s record current account surplus, the yen has continued to weaken, a situation that is considered unusual. Traditionally, a current account surplus would lead to a stronger currency, but recent trends have defied this expectation.
Historical Patterns: Comparing 2007 and Current Yen Trends
Looking back at 2007, a similar situation occurred where a current account surplus coincided with a weakening yen. The current trends bear resemblance to that period, suggesting that the speculative selling of the yen, driven by interest rate differentials, may continue to influence the currency’s value.
