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「1ドル＝144円」割れ寸前で〈円高トレンド〉到来の気配も…為替のプロが「141円台の安値更新」を否定するワケ（THE GOLD ONLINE（ゴールドオンライン）） – Yahoo!ニュース
Contents
Understanding the Recent USD/JPY Exchange Rate Trends
The USD/JPY exchange rate has seen significant fluctuations, recently nearing a break below the 144 yen mark. This movement was largely influenced by the anticipation of a rate cut at the September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, which led to a decrease in US interest rates. Investors and traders are now considering the possibility of a shift towards a strengthening yen trend.
What Triggered the USD/JPY Drop Below 144 Yen?
The drop in the USD/JPY pair below 144 yen was triggered by a combination of factors, including the downward revision of US employment figures and statements made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting. These events contributed to a growing conviction of an impending rate cut by the FOMC, resulting in lower US interest rates and a corresponding decline in the USD/JPY rate.
Is the Yen on a Path to Strengthening?
Amidst the current market conditions, there is an increasing likelihood of a yen strengthening trend. However, experts from Monex Securities suggest that an immediate drop to the 141 yen level may be unlikely due to concerns about the US interest rates being ‘overly low’. Nonetheless, the potential for a limited USD rebound suggests a cautious approach to the yen’s strengthening path.
Expert Insights: Why a Further Drop to 141 Yen Might Not Happen
Despite the recent drop in the USD/JPY exchange rate, experts predict a trading range between 142.5 and 146.5 yen for the upcoming week. The underlying reasons include the extent of the US dollar’s recent decline and the technical indicators, such as the 90-day Moving Average (MA) deviation rate, which suggest that the currency pair might not be poised for a rapid descent to the 141 yen level just yet.
Key Factors Influencing the USD/JPY Exchange Rate
The Impact of US Interest Rates on USD/JPY Movements
US interest rates play a crucial role in the USD/JPY exchange rate dynamics. The recent decrease in US rates, influenced by market expectations of FOMC policy decisions, has led to a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, affecting the currency pair’s movements.
How the Jackson Hole Meeting Affected Currency Values
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is a key event where central bankers and economists discuss monetary policy. This year, remarks by the Federal Reserve Chair at the meeting have had a significant impact on currency values, leading to a reassessment of the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Understanding the Relationship Between US Employment Figures and the Yen
The US employment figures are a vital economic indicator that can influence the USD/JPY rate. A downward revision of these figures can signal a weaker US economy, leading to potential rate cuts and a decrease in the value of the US dollar against the yen.
Forecasting the Future of USD/JPY Exchange Rates
Short-Term Overcorrection Concerns in the USD/JPY Pair
There are concerns about a short-term overcorrection in the USD/JPY pair, as indicated by the deviation from the 90-day MA. While some correction has occurred since the pair’s drop to the 141 yen level, the current negative deviation suggests that caution is warranted in predicting further movements.
Technical Analysis: The Role of Moving Averages in Predicting Trends
Moving averages are a key tool in technical analysis, helping traders identify trends. The recent crossing of the 52-week MA by the USD/JPY rate suggests a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, which could indicate a multi-year decline for the pair.
What to Watch for in the Upcoming FOMC Meeting
The upcoming FOMC meeting is a critical event for traders to watch, as the decision on interest rate cuts will have a direct impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The extent of the rate cut will be a determinant in forecasting the future direction of the pair.
