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2025年の「ドル円相場」見通し【解説：三井住友DSアセットマネジメント・チーフマーケットストラテジスト】（THE GOLD ONLINE（ゴールドオンライン）） – Yahoo!ニュース
Contents
Understanding the 2025 USD/JPY Exchange Rate Forecast
When looking ahead to the 2025 USD/JPY exchange rate, it’s crucial to start by examining the anticipated financial policies of the United States and Japan. The Federal Reserve (the central banking system of the United States) is expected to implement interest rate cuts in March and September of 2025, while the Bank of Japan is predicted to raise interest rates in January and July. These actions will play a significant role in shaping the currency exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen.
Overview of the 2025 Financial Policies in the US and Japan
The Federal Reserve is projected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) semi-annually in 2025, aiming for a target range of 3.25% to 3.50%. Conversely, the Bank of Japan is forecasted to increase interest rates by the same margin, reaching the lower limit of the neutral interest rate range, estimated between 1.00% and 2.50%, by January 2026. These adjustments are expected to influence the economic landscape and, consequently, the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Anticipated Movements in the 10-Year Government Bond Yields
The yield on 10-year government bonds is a critical indicator of long-term interest rates and financial market expectations. By the end of 2025, the yield on US 10-year bonds is anticipated to be around 4.3%, while Japanese bonds are expected to yield 1.4%. This forecast suggests a narrowing gap between the yields of the two countries, which could impact investor decisions in the currency markets.
Predicting the USD/JPY Landing Spot by Year-End 2025
Taking into account the financial policies and bond yield projections, the USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to settle at around 153 yen by the end of 2025. However, this forecast is subject to change based on the fiscal policies of the upcoming Trump administration, which could introduce greater volatility in the exchange rate.
Factors Influencing the USD/JPY Exchange Rate
The Impact of US Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are designed to stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper. This can lead to a weaker US dollar as investors seek higher returns elsewhere, potentially affecting the USD/JPY exchange rate.
The Role of Bank of Japan’s Interest Rate Hikes
On the flip side, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes aim to curb inflation and strengthen the yen. As the Japanese yen becomes more attractive, this could lead to an appreciation against the US dollar.
How Trump’s Policies Could Affect Currency Volatility
The economic policies of the Trump administration, particularly those related to fiscal expansion, could lead to increased volatility in the currency markets. Traders should remain vigilant of policy announcements and their potential impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Strategies for FX Traders in Light of the Forecast
Investment Approaches Considering Interest Rate Differentials
FX traders should consider the interest rate differentials between the US and Japan when making trading decisions. A narrowing differential may suggest potential strategies, such as carry trades, where investors borrow in a low-interest-rate currency and invest in a higher-yielding one.
Long-Term Planning for Currency Traders
Given the long-term forecast, traders should plan their strategies accordingly. This might include setting up positions that could benefit from the predicted trends in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Adapting to Potential Economic Measures and Their Effects
Traders must stay informed about potential economic measures and their effects on the financial markets. Being adaptable and responsive to new information can help in capitalizing on opportunities that arise from changes in the USD/JPY forecast.
