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トランプ2期目：ドル安戦略の課題 執筆： Investing.com
Contents
Understanding the Challenges of a Dollar Depreciation Strategy in Trump’s Second Term
Considering the potential policies of the Trump administration, Deutsche Bank Research has been contemplating the realistic challenges of implementing a policy aimed at devaluing the US dollar. Analysts point out the difficulties and constraints of such a strategy, suggesting that the imposition of tariffs and the direct impact on the dollar’s value could have a more significant outcome on market results. The practical effects of a dollar devaluation policy could involve market intervention or restrictions on capital movements, potentially requiring exceptionally large-scale financial market operations or costly establishment of capital movement restrictions.
Exploring the Realistic Challenges of Implementing a Dollar Depreciation Policy
To balance the trade deficit, analysts indicate that the US dollar’s value may need to be significantly reduced by up to 40%. Such a policy might entail market intervention or capital movement restrictions, which could involve trillions of dollars in financial market operations or the establishment of costly capital movement restrictions.
The Impact of Tariffs and Direct Intervention on the US Dollar Value
Analysts suggest that tariffs and their direct impact on the dollar’s value could influence market outcomes more than other strategies. The challenges of unilateral action in currency intervention are highlighted by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which recently spent billion in just two days, emphasizing the magnitude of the challenge. To meaningfully affect the US dollar, at least trillion would be necessary, which is considered unrealistic.
Assessing the Feasibility of Market Intervention and Capital Movement Restrictions
The plan to devalue the dollar includes the establishment of a trillion foreign exchange reserve fund. This strategy would require a significant increase in US Treasury issuance, potentially incurring fiscal costs of over billion annually. Such large-scale intervention would face high political and logistical hurdles, especially given the effort required.
The Implications of Large-Scale Financial Market Operations
Examining the Need for a Trillion Foreign Exchange Reserve Fund
The strategy to devalue the US dollar might include the creation of a trillion foreign exchange reserve fund, requiring substantial US Treasury issuance and incurring significant fiscal costs and political challenges.
The Fiscal Costs and Political Hurdles of Extensive US Treasury Issuance
Extensive US Treasury issuance could lead to fiscal costs exceeding billion per year. The political and logistical challenges of such large-scale intervention are considerable, particularly in light of the effort required.
Lessons from Japan’s Recent Currency Intervention Efforts
Japan’s Ministry of Finance’s recent expenditure of billion in two days serves as a lesson in the scale of challenges faced when intervening in currency markets. It underscores the impracticality of influencing the US dollar without massive financial market operations.
Limits of Coordinated Currency Interventions and Capital Outflow Risks
Constraints of Coordinated Interventions Among G7 Countries
Coordinated interventions in currency markets are limited by the commitment of G7 countries to market-determined exchange rates and the insufficient foreign exchange reserves held by central banks, excluding Japan.
Historical Context: Comparing Current Challenges to the Plaza Accord
Past instances like the Plaza Accord occurred when countries had larger foreign exchange reserves and capital markets were smaller in scale, contrasting with the current challenges faced.
Strategies to Promote Capital Outflows and Their Potential Contradictions
Encouraging capital outflows from the US could be another method to devalue the dollar. Options such as taxing foreign deposits or establishing residence-based investment rules may be considered, but extensive restrictions on capital movements could contradict President Trump’s assertions of maintaining the US dollar’s role as a major global reserve currency.
